How AI Signal Ratings work

What a rating is

A rating describes how much government-linked activity has gathered around a company recently, and in which direction members of Congress have been trading it. It is the same for every subscriber, it is recomputed every day, and it is not a view on what anyone should do with a stock.

Each rated company shows a level (High, Moderate, Low or Quiet activity), a direction (mostly buying, mostly selling or mixed), how much data stands behind it (Strong data: six or more stock trades in the window; Some data: three to five; Little data: one or two) and the reasons in plain words.

The evidence

Three public records feed the rating today. Each is read from the official filings, dated, and kept with its source so every reason can be traced back.

Three more are shown next to the rating as facts, without weight in the score until our checks earn them one: company insider filings, presidential financial disclosures and off-exchange trading volume.

• Congressional stock disclosures: the trades members of Congress report under the STOCK Act, by report date, for the last 90 days. Only stock trades count; options, funds and exchanges are set aside.
• Federal contract totals: a company's federal contract dollars by fiscal quarter, compared with its own prior year. Because contract data arrives about 90 days late, the latest complete quarter is used.
• Lobbying disclosures: a company's reported lobbying spend over the last two quarters, compared with the four before.

What the code measures

Everything numerical is computed by code from those records. Newer trades count more than older ones: a trade halves in weight every three weeks.

• Flow: how one-sided the trading is, weighted by the disclosed dollar brackets and by recency.
• Volume: how much was traded, as a percentile against every other company rated that day.
• Breadth: how many distinct members are on the dominant side, net of the other side, and whether both parties are among them.
• Unusualness: trades in the last 30 days against the company's own usual 30 days over the past year.
• Corroboration: whether federal contract totals and lobbying spend are rising against the company's own history.

What our AI does, and does not do

Our AI answers a few fixed questions about the measured facts: which of five patterns best describes the activity, whether the contracts relate to the company's core business, whether the lobbying issues relate to its main revenue, and, when an asset description is ambiguous, whether it is common stock.

Its answers can only nudge the result within a narrow band, and an unsure answer changes nothing. It never sees prices, never writes free text, and never names people. Where it was unsure, the card says so.

How the level is set

The measured factors are combined with a published starting formula into a score between 0 and 1, then adjusted by the AI's answers within the band. High activity starts at 0.77, Moderate at 0.45 and Low at 0.20; the High cut is set so that about one company in six with three or more trades is High across a year of data.

Every company Congress has traded in the last 90 days is rated. Strong data means at least six stock trades in the window, Some data three to five, Little data one or two. With little data the level is capped at Low; with nothing filed in the last 45 days it is Quiet until a new trade is reported. The AI's confidence never changes a level; an unsure answer only leaves the pattern unnamed.

The weights only change after we check, on data the formula has not seen, whether flagged activity was followed by unusual government action around the company, and whether the market moved. Those checks stay internal; the method is public.

Companies with little data

Every company Congress has traded in the last 90 days appears on the page with a level. When there is little to go on, the level says so rather than pretending otherwise:

• Fewer than three stock trades in the last 90 days: Low activity, marked "little data". Our AI is not consulted, and the trades it has are listed in its Ask window.
• Nothing filed in the last 45 days: Quiet activity until a new trade is reported. Members have up to 45 days to report, so a company goes quiet before anything new can show.
• Only stock trades count. Options, funds, bonds and exchanges of one holding for another are set aside, so a company can show many filings and few stock trades.
• A company with no trade reported in 90 days is Quiet, with nothing to list.

Limits

• Disclosure lag: members have up to 45 days to report a trade, so the newest activity may be missing.
• Brackets, not amounts: disclosures give dollar ranges; the midpoint of each range is used.
• Contract data is quarterly and late; same-day award announcements are planned for a later release.
• A rating is not a prediction, a forecast or a price view. Thin data is labelled as such rather than hidden.
• The record can be wrong or late at the source; corrections appear on the next daily run.

Sources

Congressional disclosures (STOCK Act filings), federal contract records, lobbying disclosures (LDA filings), the SEC's company list, and public-domain member records. Source names on every card describe the public record, not a data provider.

Disclaimer

Not investment advice. Same rating for everyone. TraderCongress is not a registered investment adviser. Nothing here is an offer, solicitation or suggestion to trade any security. Read the full disclaimer at /disclaimer.